Minnesota Poll: More Minnesotans are vetoing the party labels

In their largest numbers in four years, Minnesotans are rejecting major parties and identifying themselves as independents, a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll shows.

Thirty-eight percent of Minnesota adults polled last month described themselves as independents, compared with 29 percent who said they're Democrats and 24 percent who consider themselves Republicans.

"That's incredible, really, in an era that's so intensely polarized," said Kathryn Pearson, a University of Minnesota political scientist who specializes in public opinion. "It's really striking that the public's disaffected with the Republicans and the Democrats."

The poll interviewed 802 Minnesotans ages 18 and older Sept. 18-23. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Fully identified Democrats and Republicans are nearly at parity, but the Republicans remain at a distinct disadvantage when independents who lean toward the parties are factored in. When self-described partisans and leaners are combined, Democrats are ahead 45 percent to 33 percent.

Recent national polls have found a comparable rise in the number of independents, mostly at GOP expense.

A recent Pew Research Center poll showed independents and Democrats nationally tied with 34 percent support, lagged by Republicans at 25 percent.

When leaners were factored in, the Democrats' advantage swelled to 52 percent to 35 percent.

Andrew Kohut, Pew's president, called the changes found in his poll since early this decade "an extraordinary shift in party ID. The landscape clearly favors the Democrats."

But, he cautioned, Democrats can't take their apparent numerical advantage for granted, given the fact that independents remain up for grabs and that the party's dominance "is predicated almost exclusively on an increasingly negative view of Republicans."

Pearson also had a warning for Democrats, pointing to the fact that approval ratings for Congress, controlled by Democrats, are even lower than President Bush's.

"Sure, people are dissatisfied with the Republicans, but they're dissatisfied with the Democratic leadership, too," she said. "They took control of Congress, have done nothing, so the public isn't very sympathetic to them."

'Had it' with both of them

Robyn Anderson, a casino blackjack dealer from Hinckley, articulated a curse-on-both-your-houses attitude toward both major parties. "Honestly, I've had it with both of them," she said. "I used to be a Democrat, but they haven't gotten it right any more than the Republicans have.

"My husband and I talk about it and want to vote for someone who'll do the job, whatever party they belong to."

Die-hard party members are still hanging on, such as Ruth Rauschendorfer, a rural mail carrier from Scandia who calls herself "a Wellstone Democrat."You can be a bleeding-heart tree-hugger, but my attitude is if the boat's rising, you don't keep others out to drown," she said. "I just don't understand the whole Republican shtick to look out for yourself and let everyone else take a flying leap."

Jack Daugherty, a retired dentist from Eden Prairie, said he has always voted Republican, but identifies himself "first as a conservative."I don't always agree with everything [the Republicans] say, but I still hope we elect a Republican president next year," he said.

Independents up for grabs

Minnesota Republican Party spokesman Mark Drake downplayed what he called "generic party identification," saying Minnesota "is a state that's always had an independent maverick streak. A lot of those independents are up for grabs."

Those independents "look at the best person to represent all Minnesotans, and I think Gov. [Tim] Pawlenty and Sen. [Norm] Coleman in the Senate race are those kind of leaders."

DFL chair Brian Melendez also focused on independents, particularly those who said they lean toward his party.

"That's almost as good an indication of how we're doing as those who have a straight party ID," he said. "We really care about how people act at the polls. ... We care more about how they behave than whether they're card-carrying members of the party."

From the 1960s until the end of the 20th century, the Democrats almost always enjoyed an advantage over Republicans in Minnesota, often 10 percentage points or more.

But Minnesotans' party identification has been exceptionally fluid in recent years, with Republicans holding a slight edge over Democrats and independents as recently as July 2006, in a poll of likely voters. More often than not, the parties have been at rough parity.

But the independents' strength in the current poll is among the highest measured by 23 state polls conducted this decade. The high mark, 41 percent, was recorded in early 2000 but is within the current poll's margin of error.

Minnesotans' party identification closely tracks other attitudes examined by the poll.

Not surprisingly, Democrats have a far harsher assessment of President Bush's performance in office than Republicans do; only one in 20 Democrats approve of the job he's doing, compared with 70 percent of Republicans. One quarter of the independents give Bush a thumbs-up.

When assessing the overall state of the nation, Democrats are nearly as downbeat, with only 12 percent saying the United States is on the right track, compared with 20 percent of independents and 43 percent of Republicans.