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Poll of rural voters shows dramatic shift to Obama

October 23, 2008

The latest poll of rural voters in 13 battleground states is very good news for Barack Obama.

Released today, poll results show Obama now leads John McCain 46 to 45 percent among likely rural voters. This lead stands in stark contrast to McCain's 10-point advantage just five weeks ago in the same survey.

Karen Crummy from the Denver Post highlighted the importance of the rural vote, about 23 percent of the electorate:

"This may indicate a significant hurdle for McCain because Republicans, in order to overcome Democratic registration numbers in urban area and close contests in the suburbs, generally need to win a large share of rural voters to take the presidency."

Howard Berkes of NPR reported on the significance of the results when compared to the last presidential election:

"In 2004, George Bush won the rural parts of the battleground [states] by 15 points" notes Anna Greenberg, the Democratic pollster who conducted the bipartisan survey. "It was his base, and he got a massive amount of voters to turn out in those battleground states. It drove his victory."

The bipartisan poll was commissioned by the National Rural Assembly and managed by the Center for Rural Strategies. Conducted between October 1-21, the survey polled 841 respondents from rural parts of New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

View toplines/Frequency Questionnaire (PDF).

http://www.ruralstrategies.org/projects/tracker/2008.3/

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