Population slide continues in rural Iowa
Between 2000 and 2007, 76 of the 99 counties in Iowa recorded a population loss, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. David Swenson, an associate scientist in economics at Iowa State University, said people have been draining out of rural Iowa counties for decades.
But the latest numbers show the trend possibly accelerating, said Swenson, who studies Iowa demographics and works with communities on planning and development.
"It's just not looking good out in the western, west-central part of Iowa," he said, noting decreases in many counties west of the Des Moines metro area.
Audubon, Ida and Pocahontas counties posted the state's sharpest percentage losses. In all three counties, deaths outnumbered births during the seven-year period, as in many rural counties, and more people were estimated to have moved out than arrived.
Among the 23 Iowa counties that saw population increases, just three were outside of metropolitan areas - Sioux, Davis and Dickinson.
Standing out among the gainers was Dallas County, just west of Des Moines, where there has been a 40 percent population increase since 2000.
The suburban county's explosive growth placed it 31st in the nation among U.S. counties with 10,000 or more residents during that period.
It was among a handful of Midwestern counties with fast growth. Most of the nation's fastest-growing counties are in the South or West, in such states as Florida, Arizona, Texas and Georgia.
Dallas County's growth did not appear to be slowing yet, either. It also was among the top 100 counties in population gain between 2006 and 2007, growing an estimated 4.8 percent in one year.
Dallas County's population in 2007 was estimated at 57,288, compared with 40,773 in 2000, and it continues to be eyed for development. A West Des Moines company recently proposed a huge residential complex in the county that would surround a 3,000-acre man-made lake, though discovery of an Indian burial ground could doom the plan.
Polk County, Iowa's most populous county, grew by an estimated 11.7 percent from 2000 to 2007, gaining more than 43,000 residents for a 2007 population of 418,339.
That includes an estimated 9,700 people moving into the county from other countries, both U.S. natives and those who are foreign-born.
Beth Henning, coordinator for the Iowa State Data Center, said the population losses in rural Iowa may be attributable in part to a change in census methodology when it comes to migration.
College students who once were counted as part of their home county population now likely are counted instead as part of the population in the county where their school is located, she said. That would tend to boost population totals in big university counties such as Johnson and Story.
Katrina Wengert, a demographer with the Census Bureau, said that is indeed possible. Wengert said the census now is able to estimate population based on the residences of individual tax filers over a two-year period, rather than just the residence of the head of the household. Identities of filers are protected.
This would also lead to more accurate counting of households in which parents have separated or divorced or are living apart, she said.
Henning also pointed out that census estimates in the 1990s found more counties losing population than the 2000 decennial count determined.
Iowa State's Swenson said the methodology change may have some impact and give Iowans reason to be cautious about the estimates. But he said that many rural counties clearly are losing population and that it affects the state as a whole.
"Notwithstanding the incredible growth in Dallas and other counties, overall the state looks anemic," he said.
Swenson, who travels the state advising communities, said the kinds of jobs rural Iowa counties are able to attract often don't pay well and are seasonal or part-time. "That's not going to hold people," he said.
"They have accumulated a deficit of young adults, ages 25 to 39," he said. "And of what they had, they lose them at a faster pace. And if they have a deficit of young workers, they are less attractive to any business, because that's what they hire."
When there are fewer young adults, there also are fewer people to hold leadership positions with the local chamber of commerce, Rotary or other service organizations, he said.
Yet a lack of growth is "not necessarily awful," Swenson said, if unemployment remains low and public service delivery is sufficient.
